| Poster PS23B | |
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| Bernard Cazelles |
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| ENS-CNRS |
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| Title | Intrinsic mechanisms can generate chaotic dynamics with uniform phase in influenza epidemics: from theory to observations. |
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| Abstract | In temperate zones and during inter-pandemic periods, the dynamics of human Influenza virus lead to annual epidemics of variable amplitude caused by alternating types and subtypes of the virus. These recurrent epidemics in temperate areas are characterized by : relatively constant phase and highly variable amplitude. We show that a minimal SIRS model including key processes of influenza transmission and evolution lead to chaotic dynamics with uniform phase (known as UPCA). These theoretical results are confirmed by attractor reconstruction and statistical inference. Influenza epidemics peaks variability is currently explained by punctuated evolution of influenza main antigen, higher peaks reflecting higher antigenic changes. Our results suggest that non-linear dynamics alone without perturbation induced by sudden antigenic change can explain the observed pattern of influenza recurrence. Higher epidemic peaks should not be taken as a signature of punctually large antigenic changes as they can result from intrinsic mechanism. If our intrinsic view is correct, care should be taken in interpreting the cause of influenza epidemics variability. |
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| Coauthors | Sébastien Ballesteros, Anton Camacho |
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| Location | Woodward Lobby (Wednesday-Thursday) |
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