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International Conference on Mathematical Biology and

Annual Meeting of The Society for Mathematical Biology,

July 27-30, 2009

University of British Columbia, Vancouver

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Program

Poster PS29A
Ben Fitzpatrick
Loyola Marymount University
Title Dynamic Models of College Drinking and the Amethyst Initiative
Abstract To address heavy episodic drinking on college campuses college presidents have endorsed the Amethyst Initiative, a call to lower the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA). Our objective is to forecast the effect of the Amethyst Initiative on college drinking using a systems approach. A system model of college drinking called SimHED was adapted to simulate two hypothesized effects that would result from lowering the MLDA: 1) a decrease in heavy episodic drinking (HED) due to the lower likelihood of students drinking in unsupervised settings where they model irresponsible drinking (i.e., misperception decrease), and 2) an increase in overall drinking among currently underage students due to increased social availability alcohol (i.e., wetness increase). Simulations on a variety of campus types predicted similar results. In terms of the proportion of heavy episodic drinkers on campus large decreases in misperception of responsible drinking behavior were more than offset by modest increases wetness. In terms of the effect of lowering the MLDA increasing the social availability alcohol has a stronger impact on drinking behavior than decreasing misperceptions.
CoauthorsR. Scribner, A. Ackleh, J. Rasul
LocationWoodward Lobby (Monday-Tuesday)