| Poster PS37A | |
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| Stephen Galsworthy |
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| University of Oxford |
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| Title | Modelling the role of seed dispersal and a seed bank on the regional dynamics of annual plants |
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| Abstract | Understanding the dynamics of multiple populations of a species within a region is a problem of fundamental importance in ecology. However plant ecologists are divided as to the utility of existing metapopulation frameworks. We develop an integrodifference equation model to describe the large-scale spatial dynamics of an annual plant with a long lived seed bank. Our model describes the balance between persistence of local populations assisted by a seed bank, and the colonisation of new areas via seed dispersal. Our model is parameterised with data taken from our experiments on natural populations of annual Brassica species in Southern England. Our dispersal experimentation has suggested that anthropogenic dispersal is a potential dispersal vector in addition to the primary dispersal vector (wind) for this species. Informed by these experimental results we investigate mathematically the effect of a variety of realistic dispersal kernels to describe the distribution of dispersal distances of seeds about their parent plant. We determine the effect of the seed bank on the spread and persistence of the plant population via the analysis of the speed of invasion and critical patch sizes. We calibrate our model by comparison with data from the natural plant populations. Moreover, we compare our model with an agent-based simulation model, as part of the on-going challenge of investigating the strengths and weaknesses of different modelling approaches. |
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| Coauthors | Rosie S. Hails, James M. Bullock, Philip K. Maini |
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| Location | Woodward Lobby (Monday-Tuesday) |
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