| Abstract | Children’s hospitals around the world see seasonal outbreaks of Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), which is a major cause of lower respiratory tract disease in infants. We attempt to explain the form of seasonality seen in outbreaks of RSV in Utah and other temperate locations using a differential equation model. The model incorporates yearly fluctuation of a transmission parameter that causes a parametric resonance effect and a period-doubling bifurcation that could explain the biennial patterns suggested by outbreak data. |
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