Program
| MSE5b | |
|---|---|
| Tania Gonzalez | |
| University of California, Davis | |
| Title | The Spread of Avian Influenza Across Heterogeneous Farmscapes: |
| Abstract | [This is work of Tania Gonzalez, Andy Huang, Mary Jacklin, Michelle Jensen, Christopher Mosser, Tushar Rawat, Matthew Reed, and Ying Wu.] Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) is a virulent disease with many documented outbreaks across Europe and Asia. HPAI is endemic in Southeast Asia, but has the potential to jeopardize both human health and the poultry industry worldwide. Existing research on HPAI outbreaks has not examined the influence of poultry farm size and spatial distribution despite evidence suggesting these factors may play an important role in the spread of the disease. We developed and analyzed a multiscale model to represent HPAI disease dynamics. We used a spatially coupled stochastic SIR model to portray disease spread through a heterogeneous network of farms. The model was used to determine control strategies that minimize the number of poultry lost to infection or depopulation. We found that patterns of disease dynamics depend in a non-intuitive way on farm size and spatial patterns of farm location. These patterns also affect the combination of culling radius and response time that minimizes loss of chickens. Specifically, for some spatial patterns, an intermediate culling distance is optimal. |
| Location | Woodward 5 |